Arizona Election Forecast

There is one question on the minds of every person interested in Arizona politics — who will win in the general election. Below you’ll find the PoliticIt election forecast for Arizona. PoliticIt has calculated the It Score for each candidate.

The It Score measures a politician’s digital influence. PoliticIt has found high correlation between a candidate’s strong digital influence and her success on election day. So far the It Score has correctly predicted election outcomes in more than 300 races with 90 percent accuracy. The candidate with the highest It Score in each race is the one most likely to win according to our data. To learn more about the It Score, click here

First Name Last Name Race It Score
Jonathan Paton Congressional district 1 58
Ann Kirkpatrick Congressional district 1 37
Kim Allen Congressional district 1 5
Ron Barber Congressional district 2 53
Charlie Manolakis Congressional district 2 5
Martha McSally Congressional district 2 42
Raúl Grijalva Congressional district 3 67
Gabriela Mercer Congressional district 3 17
Blanca Guerra Congressional district 3 16
Paul Gosar Congressional district 4 60
Johnnie Robinson Congressional district 4 15
Joe Pamelia Congressional district 4 8
Richard Grayson Congressional district 4 17
Matt Salmon Congressional district 5 57
Spencer Morgan Congressional district 5 43
David Schweikert Congressional district 6 63
Matt Jette Congressional district 6 13
Mark Salazar Congressional district 6 9
Rick Anderson Congressional district 6 15
Edward Pastor Congressional district 7 60
Joe Penalosa Congressional district 7 13
Scott Fistler Congressional district 7 13
Joe Cobb Congressional district 7 14
Trent Franks Congressional district 8 70
Gene Scharer Congressional district 8 15
Stephen Dolgos Congressional district 8 15
Kyrsten Sinema Congressional district 9 64
Vernon Parker Congressional district 9 31
Powell Gammill Congressional district 9 5
Jeff Flake U.S. Senate 40
Richard Henry Carmona U.S. Senate 36
Ian Gilyeat U.S. Senate 3
Michael Meyer U.S. Senate 2
Marc Victor U.S. Senate 19

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