Arkansas Election Forecast


Who’s going to win in tomorrow’s Arkansasprimaries?  The “It Score” weighs in…

Last month we applied the It Score algorithm to local elections for the first time and ended up correctly forecasting both of Utah’s state conventions with 100% accuracy (utahpolicy.com).  Recently we applied the algorithm to primaries in WisconsinWest Virginia, North CarolinaIndianaNebraskaIdaho, and Oregon.  To date, the It Score has a prediction rate of 87%.  Here is the current election forecast for Arkansas according to the It Score.

District 1


Republican Winner


Democrat Winner


On the Democrat side…Scott Ellington, Clark Hall, and Gary Latanich are all within the margin of error, however, Scott Ellington has a slightly higher It Score indicating that he has a higher probability of winning tomorrow.

District 2


Republican Winner


Democrat Winner

District 3


Democrat Winner


Republican Winner

It is interesting that Kenneth Aden has a higher It Score relative to Stephen Womack considering that Womack has raised a significant amount of capital relative to Aden.

District 4


Republican Winner


Democrat Winner


These are the It Score predictions.  PoliticIt is the first big data company in election politics.  The It Score is calculated using sophisticated machine learning and giant data sets.  We have been calculating the It Score for over 10 months and our results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the It Score and traditional national polls. 

If you’re a politician and you want to improve your score email us.

Happy voting,


Josh Light is the CEO of PoliticIt.
Connect with him:
Twitter
LinkedIn
Josh@PoliticIt.com

Share this article