There is one question on the minds of every person interested in California politics… Who is going to win on Tuesday? The PoliticIt team has set out to answer this question. Below you’ll find the PoliticIt election forecast. The forecast was generated by calculating It Scores for each of the California politicians.
What is the It Score? The It Score measure’s a politician’s digital influence. So far the It Score has been used to predict election outcomes in more than 162 races with 87% accuracy (CNBC, Yahoo! Finance, Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch). The candidate with the highest It Score will likely win on Tuesday. How do we calculate the It Score? The It Score is calculated by collecting and analyzing massive amounts of data from what people are doing and saying in the internet, social networks, and in the real world. The data collected for the calculation of these It Scores is from June 1, 2012. To learn more about the It Score click here.
Among Democrats…Jared Huffman will likely win the nomination, however, this is a very close race. There is a high probably that this race will go into a primary. The data suggests that if a primary occurs it will be between Norman Solomon and Jared Huffman.
On the Republican side it looks like Dan Roberts will likely win.
Among independents John Lewallen has the edge on Brooke Clarke, but it should be noted that both of these candidates lack considerable data so any conclusion drawn between the two does not carry any statistical significance.
PoliticIt provides election software for politicians and special interest groups. The software provides voter/donor micro-targeting in social networks, social media management, daily It Scores, competitor tracking, and digital influence tools. To sign up for your free trial please visit us at www.politicit.com/politicitcampaign.
Josh Light is a co-founder of PoliticIt.