After the dust settled from last night’s debate Americans across the country began speculating about the effect that the debate will have on Florida’s Primary tomorrow.
The PoliticIt team dug into the data to provide some answers. Below is a graph illustrating Intrade fluctuations during the debate. These price changes reflect the probability of a candidate winning the Florida Primary. An increase in the price indicates that the probability of the candidate improved whereas a decrease in the price indicates the opposite.
Mitt Romney clearly benefited from his debate performance. This debate increased the probability of him winning the Florida Primary by 14.3%. Newt Gingrich suffered the most with a 14.1% decrease in the probability of him winning the Florida Primary. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum had very little trading during the debate and both candidates came out with a zero indicating that the debate did not improve or hurt their chances of winning the Florida Primary.
Currently Mitt Romney is predicted to win the Florida Primary with a 92.3% chance. Newt Gingrich has a 8% chance of winning. Rick Santorum has a 0.2% chance of winning and Ron Paul has a 0.1% chance of winning.
It will be interesting to see if these probabilities stick.
For more social media data on the 2012 presidential candidates visit us at http://www.politicit.com/.