Illinois primary election forecast

Illinois Primary Election Forecast – Rauner Victory Likely

Today voters in Illinois will decide who will represent their party in the 2014 election.  PoliticIt has applied the It Score algorithm to find out who will likely win in the various primary races.

The It Score is a measure of a digital influence that correlates with election results (GigaOM).

The It Score was used in the 2012 election to correctly predict the outcomes of every major federal race with 92% accuracy.  The It Score forecasted the Texas primary election with 91% accuracy.

If a candidate has a higher It Score relative to their opponent then they will likely win on March 4.

Scores for candidates running against each other are calculated on a relative basis. Methodology for its calculation is contained at this end of this article.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Gubernatorial Candidates:

Candidate It Score
Bruce Rauner 48
Dan Rutherford 20
Kirk Dillard 17
Bill Brady 15

Bruce Rauner will likely win the Republican nomination today.  Rauner should look to improve his presence on Twitter before the general election.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates:

Candidate It Score
Pat Quinn 84
Tio Hardiman 16

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Senate Candidates:

Candidate It Score
Jim Oberweis 56
Doug Truax 44

Jim Oberweis will likely win today.  Oberweis lacks a presence on Twitter, and should work to build up a following before the general election.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates for Treasurer:

Candidate It Score
Tom Cross 71
Bob Grogan 29

The It Score is predicting a victory for Tom Cross.  Cross outperformed Bob Grogan across the board online.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates in Congressional District 3:

Candidate It Score
Diane Harris 56
Sharon Brannigan 44

Due to the lack of buzz from the press surrounding this race it is difficult to calculate an accurate score for these candidates.

As it stands…the It Score is predicting a victory for Diane Harris…but it could really go either way.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Democratic Candidates in Congressional District 4:

Candidate It Score
Luis Gutierrez 67
Alexandra Eidenberg 21
Jorge Zavala 12

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates in Congressional District 8:

Candidate It Score
Larry Kaifesh 51
Manju Goel 49

Larry Kaifesh has a slight edge in this race, but it could easily go to Manju Goel.  Toss up.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates in Congressional District 9:

Candidate It Score
David Williams III 81
Susanne Atanus 19

David Williams III will likely win this race.  Susanne Atanus suffered online after she expressed her belief that God created autism, dementia, and extreme weather conditions to punish the U.S. for legalizing abortion, and the increased support of same-sex marriage.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates in Congressional District 11:

Candidate It Score
Chris Balkema 33
Bert Miller 27
Ian Bayne 25
Darlene Senger 15

Chris Balkema has the slight edge in this race, but it could easily go to Bert Miller.  The numbers are really close.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Democratic Candidates in Congressional District 13:

Candidate It Score
Ann Callis 47
George Gollin 35
David Green 18

Ann Callis will likely win today.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates in Congressional District 13:

Candidate It Score
Rodney Davis 52
Erica Harold 38
Mike Firsching 10

Rodney Davis will likely win today.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Democratic Candidates in Congressional District 14:

Candidate It Score
Dennis Anderson 89
John Hosta 11

The It Score is predicting a victory for Dennis Anderson.  There is little to no data surrounding John Hosta.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Republican Candidates in Congressional District 16:

Candidate It Score
Adam Kinzinger 73
David Hale 27

Adam Kinzinger will likely win today.

Illinois Primary Election Forecast for Democratic Candidates in Congressional District 18:

Candidate It Score
Rob Mellon 62
Darrell Miller 38

The It Score is predicting a victory for Rob Mellon.

Methodology

The It Score is a machine learning algorithm that gathers chatter surrounding a political candidate from social, and traditional media sources in order to provide a gauge of their digital influence.  It accounts for tone, how people are reacting to a politician, the buzz surrounding the candidate, and what people are saying about the politician.

Whatever candidate has the highest It Score will likely win in the election.

The machine learning algorithm was trained off of actual primary election results.  The original algorithm was predicting at 67% accuracy, but overtime it learned.  Currently it is predicting at 92% accuracy, and has a standard error of 5.

PoliticIt’s hope is to refine this algorithm so that political candidates can use it to receive real-time feedback on campaign performance.

(Photo Credit: Flickr via Matt Turner)

Josh Light

Josh Light

Josh Light was CEO and Co-Founder of PoliticIt.
Josh Light

@joshuajlight

I enjoy tweeting about startups, and economics.
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