Is Newt Dropping?

Presidential Candidate Newt Gingrich

We’ve seen it with Michele Bachmann this summer; we’ve seen it with Rick Perry and Herman Cain as well in recent months. We’re talking about the rise of a presidential candidate to front-runner status and the subsequent fall of each candidate from that coveted position.

The most recent front-runner according to our It Score and according to many national polls is Newt Gingrich. Our data, however, has already begun to reveal signs that his position is in jeopardy. His It Score has dropped as has his standing in national polls. How long will he retain this top position? Will it last through the 2012 Republican presidential primaries or even through the Iowa caucus on January 3? Let’s take a look at the data; we will let you decide its significance.

On November 30, Newt saw his highest placement in any national poll yet when he placed at 38 percent. As seen in the graph below, his results began to drop with the exception of a few spikes.

Let’s take a look at Newt Gingrich’s poll results we have seen so far this December. 
So it appears as though Newt is trending downward in the national pools since the beginning of December. Let’s now see if this trend registers in some data points we follow. We’ll attempt to identify events of significance for Newt Gingrich’s campaign that occurred thus far in December at points were we see shifts in data trends. First let’s look at Facebook and Twitter.

As seen in the graph above, the rate in which new individuals followed Gingrich on Facebook declined following his December 15 Fox News debate. Twitter also saw a drop in the rate days after the debate excitement passed. According to our Twitter and Intrade data we collected during that debate (results can be viewed, here), Gingrich finished second to last. 

Another event of significance occurred on December 9 when Newt Gingrich said in an interview with the Jewish Channel that Palestinians are “an invented people.” We have included video of this interview below.

The result of this statement may have led to a drop on Gingrich’s Intrade price for several days after the statement was made as displayed in the following graph. Also notice the gradual slowing of Newt’s Facebook followers.
Newts front-runner status attracted the attention of other candidates, and with this status comes attack ads. As noted in the graph above, Ron Paul released an ad that got picked up by many outlets during the first few days of December. It appears that the ad may have adversely affected Ginrich’s campaign. Here’s a look at the ad: 
And for a final data point, let’s look at the number of individuals who have visited Newt’s Wikipedia article. (Notice that Intrade lags behind Wikipedia hits by about one day and that the two data points appear to be correlated): 
You have seen the data, and you have likely witnessed many of the events mentioned above that have occurred this month. The question remains: Can Newt Gingrich continue to maintain his front-runner position? You decide. 

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