Kentucky Election Forecast

With primaries just around the corner in Kentuckywe decided to give candidates an idea of where they currently stand by projecting their “It Scores”.

Last month we applied the It Score algorithm to local elections for the first time and ended up correctly forecasting both of Utah’s state conventions with 100% accuracy (utahpolicy.com).  Recently we applied the algorithm to primaries in Wisconsin, West Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon.  To date, the It Score has a prediction rate of 87%.  Here is the current election forecast for Kentucky according to the It Score.


District 1


Current Republican Leader


Current Democrat Leader


Ed Whitfield may be the current leader in District 1 for the Republicans but he has actually incurred a decrease in his It Score over the past month. James Buckmaster, on the other hand, has actually seen an increase in his It Score over the past month…while Charles Hatchett has experienced a slight decrease in his It Score.



As far as fund raising goes, Whitfield is smoking his competitors with over 1.3 million in campaign contributions.


District 2


Current Republican Leader

Current Democrat Leader

Likely Republican nominee Brett Guthrie is currently leading in District 2 with an It Score of 85.  Likely Democrat nominee David Williams lags significantly behind Guthrie with an It Score of 15.  Guthrie has seen an improvement in his It Score over the last month while Williams has experienced a significant decline in his It Score.  This indicates that Williams will need to invest heavily in improving his digital influence prior to the general election if he wishes to stand a chance against the established Guthrie and the Republican party that seems to dominate this district.




On the fund raising side, Guthrie dominates with roughly 928,000 in campaign contributions.


District 3


Current Democrat Leader

Current Republican Leader

John Yarmuth has experienced a fairly large decrease in his It Score over the past month, while his likely Republican challenger Brooks Wicker has seen an increase in his It Score.  Burrel Farnsley, Yarmuth’s in party contender, has seen a slight decrease in his It Score.




Yarmuth dominates in the fund raising arena with 476,760 in campaign contributions.



District 4



District 4: Special-Feature District
We found this district’s race so interesting that recorded a video podcast covering a more in-depth analysis of this race.


Current Republican Leader


Current Democrat Leader

Gary Moore is currently leading in the Republican race and has experienced an increase in his It Score, however, Thomas Massie has also enjoyed an increase in his It Score.  Both contenders are currently within the margin indicating that either could win the Republican nomination.  Marc Carey, Brian Oerther, Tom Wurtz, and Alecia Edgington all experienced a decrease in their It Scores.  Despite Edgington’s decrease she is still in striking distance for winning the Republican nomination.  

On the Democrat side Bill Adkins currently leads but Adkins experienced a decrease in his score over the last month.  On the other hand, Greg Frank enjoyed a slight increase in his It Score.  Despite Frank’s increase it is highly unlikely he will win the Democrat nomination.

On the fund raising side, Adkins lags his Republican contenders significantly with a mere 19,006 in campaign contributions.  Massie leads the Republicans with 307,741.   Behind Massie we have Moore with 275,620, Edgington with 209,446, and Schumm with 75,128.
District 5


Current Republican Leader


Current Democrat Leader


Current Democrat Leader

Harold Rogers experienced a decrease in his It Score over the past month, but he still enjoys a large lead relative to his Democrat contenders.  Michael Ackerman and Ken Stepp both had decreases in their It Scores as well.  Ackerman and Stepp have the exact same It Score indicating that either one could win the Democrat nomination.  As far as fund raising goes, Rogers is dominating with nearly 1 million in contributions.

District 6


Current Republican Leader


Current Democrat Leader

District 6 incumbent Albert Chandler experienced a slight decrease in his It Score over the last month.  He also lags considerably in his digital influence relative to his Republican contenders and would benefit in an increase in his score.  

On the Republican side, Andy Barr experienced a large increase in his It Score likely securing his the Republican nomination.  Both of Barr’s contenders, Patrick Kelly and Curtis Kenimer, experienced increases in their scores. On the fund raising side, Chandler is currently beating Barr with by roughly a 500 K advantage. 

These are the current It Score standings for the various politicians running the Kentucky election.  

PoliticIt is the first big data company in election politics.  The It Score is calculated using sophisticated machine learning and giant data sets.  We have been calculating the It Score for over 10 months and our results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the It Score and traditional national polls as well as election results.

If you’re a politician and you want to improve your score email us.

PoliticIt is a boot-strapped college start-up based in Utah. We are a hip group of economists, math people, graphic designers, and software junkies chasing the American Dream.  We are a jolly non-partisan lot of tribes people interested in everything politics.  We dream of a world consisting of political transparency.  We love democracy.  

Leave us comments below.  We are a humble lot in need of feedback and are always interested in improvement.  Please check out our website too.  We need you’re highly valued opinion.  It’s free too. 

Happy voting,


Josh Light is a Co-Founder and the CEO of PoliticIt.
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