What if there was a way to measure a debate’s success based upon data collected from social networks and the internet instead of relying upon the opinion of political commentators or journalists…well now there is.
The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate. This blog is focused completely on Michele Bachmann. If you want to see a mash-up of the performances you’ll have to visit our main blog. If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum.
The PoliticIt team focused on two areas of measurement: Twitter, and Intrade.
The following graph shows Twitter chatter about Michele Bachmann over the last 7 days preceding the debate for the following Hashtags and @ tags: #MicheleBachmann, #Bachmann, @Bachmann, @MicheleBachmann.
Notice the most widely used tag on Twitter for Michele Bachmann to be the @MicheleBachmann tag.
This is the same graph after the debate:
Notice a significant spike in Twitter activity during the debate. This indicates that people were talking about Michele Bachmann during the debate on Twitter, but was this chatter good or bad? Let’s take a quick look.
The above graph illustrates whether tweets about Michele Bachmann were positive or negative regarding the Hashtags and @ tags that are being tracked in this blog. If you look underneath the 9th of November you can see how Bachmann performed in last night’s debate. Notice how most of her tags were positive except for the tag #bachmann. This means that people who used the tag #bachmann were generally saying something negative. If we average out the values then Michele Bachmann receives a score a Twitter score of 2.225.
Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election. If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.
This is Michele Bachmann’s Intrade data on November 8th the day before the debate:
Notice how her price deviates between .7 and 1.2.
This is Bachmann’s Intrade data on the day of the debate:
Notice how Michele Bachmann’s shares increase during the debate and then flatten out. This indicates that the debate has a positive effect on her probability of becoming the GOP nominee. She enjoyed a 10 cent increase which equates to an 11% overall price increase.
Extra Twitter Stats (approximate):
Top Positive Tweeters during the Debate:
DailyNational: 2 tweets
Austin1622: 1 tweet
BooBreeze: 1 tweet
almostcoherent: 1 tweet
billiegirltoo: 1 tweet
Top Retweeters during the Debate:
Red_Stater: 3 retweets
pinesol: 3 retweets
JAFThrasher: 3 retweets
As_promised: 2 retweets
antmousie: 2 retweets
Top Tweeters for Bachmann the last 7 days:
ConservativeBC: 79 tweets
jonesfiction: 38 tweets
haleypyrate02: 24 tweets
LifeDontWasteIt: 21 tweets
TheTeaParty_net: 19 tweets
Top Positive Tweeters for Bachmann the last 7 days:
southerntalker: 3 tweets
Ritalynman: 3 tweets
ConservativeBC: 2 tweets
Byeagle37: 2 tweets
DailyNational: 2 tweets
Top Retweeters for Bachmann in the last 7 days:
pinesol: 6 retweets
JosephMRyan1: 6 retweets
Red_Stater: 5 retweets
AZTanya: 4 retweets
GooseCreekPatch: 4 retweets
To see how Michele Bachmann did compared to other CNBC Michigan Republican Party Debate presidential candidates click here PoliticIt.