Michele Bachmann Thanksgiving Family Forum Debate Performance

Michele Bachmann Debate Performance
At PoliticIt we are sick of media bias.  We are tired of media elitist telling us who to vote for or who won the debate.  So we decided to fight back.  Instead of basing debate performance on the opinion of a political commentator with an Ivy school education we let you determine who won the debate based upon what you say in Twitter and how people trade on Intrade.  We feel that this is a better representation of debate performance because it is based upon the opinions of millions of people instead of the opinion of one person.  If you value political transparency and dream of a better democratic process then you should share this article.

The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate. This blog is focused completely on Michele Bachmann. If you want to see who won the debate please click on this link PoliticIt. Overall Michele Bachmann tied for 3rd in this debate.  If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum.

The following graphs show whether Twitter activity about Michele Bachmann during the debate was positive or negative for the following Hashtags and @tags: #Bachmann, @MicheleBachmann, and @TeamBachmann.

As you can see in the above graph people said the most positive things about Michele Bachmann when using the @tag of @MicheleBachmann.  Because all of the bars have positive values the majority of Twitter users only had good things to say about Michele Bachmann.  On Twitter Michele Bachmann came out in 2nd place.  Good job Michele. 

Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election. If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.  We feel this is a good place to measure debate performance because people are betting real money on the probability of a candidate winning the GOP nomination.  These people are putting their money where their mouth is.

This is Bachmann’s Intrade data during the debate:

Notice Michele Bachmann’s beginning price of $1.10.  This price indicates that Intrade traders believed Michele Bachmann to have a 1.1% chance of winning the GOP nomination prior to the debate.  Notice Michele Bachmann’s end price of $1.10.  Michele Bachmann’s beginning and end price were the same value indicating that Intrade traders felt that the probability of Michele Bachmann winning the nomination was un-effected during the debate.  One thing to note regarding Michele Bachmann is a low trading volume.  Only 3 trades occurred between 3:26 PM EST and 6:34 PM EST.  High trading volumes are usually associated with candidates either increasing or decreasing in price.  A low trade volume indicates that Intrade traders believe that the candidate price will likely not fluctuate. 

Michele Bachmann’s biggest debate Twitter Fans.  If you like Michele Bachmann then you should probably follow these guys in the next debate:

Positive Tweeters Number Retweeter Number
BillFWade 3 TeamBachmann 7
citizenlink 2 jdirt2019 5
genuinegypsy 2 thequantmethod 5
Ahmedeltayebhaj 1 sandinbrick 4
aletheiatruth 1 amajorpain 3

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