What if there was a way to measure a debate’s success based upon data collected from social networks and the internet instead of relying upon the opinion of political commentators or journalists…well now there is.
The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate. This blog is focused completely on Mitt Romney. If you want to see a mash-up of the performances you’ll have to visit our main blog. If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, JonHuntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum.
The PoliticIt team focused on two areas of measurement: Twitter, and Intrade.
The following graph shows Twitter activity about Mitt Romney over the last 7 days preceding the debate for the following Hashtags and @ tags: #Mittromney, #romney, @romney, @mittromney.
Notice the most widely used tag on Twitter for Mitt Romney to be the @mittromney tag.
This is the same graph after the debate:
Notice a significant spike in Twitter activity during the debate. This indicates that people were talking about Mitt Romney during the debate on Twitter, but was this chatter good or bad? Let’s take a quick look.
The above graph illustrates whether tweets about Mitt Romney were positive or negative regarding the Hashtags and @ tags that are being tracked in this blog. If you look underneath the 9th of November you can see how Romney performed in last night’s debate. If we average out the values then Mitt Romney receives a score a Twitter score of 3.075.
Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election. If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.
This is Mitt Romney’s Intrade data on November 8th the day before the debate:
Notice how his price declined about 1.5 indicating that traders believed him to be less likely to win the GOP nomination.
This is Romney’s Intrade data on the day of the debate:
Notice how Mitt Romney’s shares increase during the debate until about 7:19 PM at which time he experiences a 2.1 drop in price. He then experiences an uptick in his price follow by another decline. After the last decline he enjoys a steady increase ending with a 4.6% higher price relative to the beginning of the debate. Romney gains 3 dollars and 10 cents in this debate. At the conclusion of the debate Intrade traders believe Mitt Romney to have a 69.9% probability of getting the GOP nomination.
Extra Twitter Stats (approximate):
Top Positive Tweeters during the Debate:
TampaGurlFL: 12 tweets
Kensonhiatt: 11 tweets
StknConservativ: 9 tweets
AmericaNeedsMR: 7 tweets
THIZDUDE_THINKZ: 7 tweets
Top Retweeters during the Debate:
Charlie_Missy: 65 tweets
Top Tweeters for Romney the last 7 days:
RomneyTruth: 350 tweets
StopRickPerry2: 150 tweets
Poorconservativ: 115 tweets
StknConservativ: 82 tweets
Rompess: 78 tweets
Top Positive Tweeters for Romney the last 7 days:
JoshDana: 7 tweets
THIZDUDE_THINKZ: 5 tweets
TampaGurlFL: 5 tweets
AmericaNeedsMR: 5 tweets
StknConservativ: 5 tweets
Top Retweeters for Romney in the last 7 days:
Charlie_Missy: 61 tweets
Norsu2: 45 tweets
AmericaNeedsMR: 30 tweets
T_bombers: 28 tweets
Texor7140: 25 tweets
To see how Mitt Romney did compared to other CNBC Michigan Republican Party Debate presidential candidates click here PoliticIt.