Newt Gingrich CBS Debate Performance

Debate Analysis

What if there was a way to measure a debate’s success based upon data collected from social networks and the internet instead of relying upon the opinion of political commentators or journalists…well now there is.


The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate.  This blog is focused completely on Newt Gingrich.  If you want to see who won the debate click here.  If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Mitt RomneyMichele BachmannHerman CainJon HuntsmanRon PaulRick PerryRick Santorum.

The PoliticIt team focused on two areas of measurement: Twitter, and Intrade.


The following graphs show whether Twitter activity about Newt Gingrich during the debate was positive or negative for the following Hashtags and @tags: #Gingrich, #NewtGingrich, and @NewtGingrich.

Notice how all of his tags were positive.  This means that the majority of people on Twitter were saying good things about Newt.  If we average out the values then Newt Gingrich receives a Twitter score of 4.2.  This puts Newt 4th place with his Twitter Score.


Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election.  If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.

This is Gingrich’s Intrade data during the debate:

At the beginning of the debate Newt Gingrich was trading at 13 dollars per share.  At the end of the debate he was trading at 13.4 dollars per share.  Overall the debate increased his price by 40 cents or a 3% price increase.  This indicates that traders on Intrade believe that the debate helped the probability of Newt Gingrich winning the GOP nomination. 

Top Positive Tweeters Top Retweeters
StknConservativ 12 StknConservativ 140
UdayanMallik 10 UdayanMallik 85
RomneyTruth 10 LittleFlos 70
cutiepi2u 8 JeremyDanilson 60
IvanGH 7 Newt2012HQ 57

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