Newt Gingrich Thanksgiving Family Forum Debate Performance

Newt Gingrich Debate Performance
At PoliticIt we are sick of media bias.  We are tired of media elitist telling us who to vote for or who won the debate.  So we decided to fight back.  Instead of basing debate performance on the opinion of a political commentator with an Ivy school education we let you determine who won the debate based upon what you say in Twitter and how people trade on Intrade.  We feel that this is a better representation of debate performance because it is based upon the opinions of millions of people instead of the opinion of one person.  If you value political transparency and dream of a better democratic process then you should share this article.

The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate. This blog is focused completely on Newt Gingrich. If you want to see who won the debate please click on this link PoliticIt. Overall Newt Gingrich took 2nd in this debate.  If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry.

The following graphs show whether Twitter activity about Newt Gingrich during the debate was positive or negative for the following Hashtags and @tags: #Newt, #NewtGingrich, and @NewtGingrich.

As you can see in the above graph people said the most positive things about Newt Gingrich when using the @tag of @NewtGingrich.  Because all of the bars have positive values the majority of Twitter users only had good things to say about Newt.  On Twitter Gingrich came out in 3rd place.  Good job Newt. 

Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election. If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.  We feel this is a good place to measure debate performance because people are betting real money on the probability of a candidate winning the GOP nomination.  These people are putting their money where their mouth is.

This is Newt’s Intrade data during the debate:

Notice Newt Gingrich’s beginning price of $12.60.  This price indicates that Intrade traders believed Newt Gingrich to have a 12.6% chance of winning the GOP nomination prior to the debate.  Notice Newt Gingrich’s end price of $13.70.  Newt Gingrich gained a 9% price increase during the debate which indicates that Intrade traders felt that the probability of Newt winning the nomination increased during the debate.  Gingrich’s large price increase is an excellent sign that his campaign is doing well. Nice work Newt.
Newt’s biggest debate Twitter Fans.  These people were top positive tweeters and retweeters during the debate.  If you like Newt then you should probably follow these guys in the next debate:

Positive Tweeters Number Retweeter Number
StknConservativ 3 UdayanMallik 18
Ranger1325 3 Ritalynman 13
GBHermit 2 LittleFlos 12
caincan2012 2 JeremyDanilson 11
Lakecrazy 2 conservativecho 11

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