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North Carolina Primary Election Forecast

Tomorrow voters will go to the polls in North Carolina to determine who will represent their party.  PoliticIt has applied the It Score algorithm to find out who the likely representatives will be.

The It Score is a measure of a digital influence that correlates with election results (GigaOM).

The score was used in the 2012 election to correctly predict the outcomes of every major federal race with 92% accuracy, and it correctly predicted every race in the most recent Utah conventions.

If a candidate has a higher It Score relative to their opponent then they will likely win.

Scores for candidates running against each other are calculated on a relative basis.  An asterisk next to a candidate’s name indicates that they lack sufficient data to calculate an accurate score.

Methodology for its calculation is contained at this end of this article.

Senate Races

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
Kay Hagan 73%
Will Stewart 20%
Ernest Reeves 6%

Kay Hagan will likely win the Democratic nomination tomorrow.

Republican Race

Candidate It Score
Thom Tillis 28%
Greg Brannon 24%
Mark Harris 19%
Heather Grant* 14%
Alex Bradshaw* 4%
Edward Kryn* 4%
Ted Alexander 4%
Jim Snyder, Jr.* 3%

Thom Tillis has the highest probability of winning the nomination.

Congressional District 1 Races

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
G.K. Butterfield 83%
Dan Whittacre 17%

G.K. Butterfield has a higher It Score relative to Dan Whittacre.  This indicates that Butterfield will likely win tomorrow.

There was insufficient data to calculate the Republican race in this district.

Congressional District 2

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
Clay Aiken 70%
Keith Crisco 23%
Toni Morris 7%

Clay Aiken is projected to defeat Keith Crisco for the Democratic nomination, however, Aiken has an unusual amount of buzz surrounding him due to his celebrity status.  Candidates are typically not celebrities…so this could possibly throw off the accuracy of this forecast.

Republican Race

Candidate It Score
Renee Ellmers 70%
Frank Roche 30%

Renee Ellmers will likely defeat Frank Roche in tomorrow’s primary.

Congressional District 3

Republican Race

Candidate It Score
Walter  Jones, Jr. 52%
Taylor Griffin 43%
Al Novinec*
6%

Walter Jones, Jr. will likely defeat Taylor Griffin in tomorrow’s primary.

Congressional District 5

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
Gardenia Henley* 35%
Josh Brannon* 34%
Michael Holleman* 28%
Will  Stinson* 4%

All of the candidates lack sufficient data to generate an accurate score.  If we look at the limited data available…Gardenia Henley is projected to defeat Josh Brannon, Michael Holleman, and Will Stinson.

Congressional District 6

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
Laura Fjeld 53%
Bruce Davis 47%

Laura Fjeld will likely defeat Bruce Davis in tomorrow’s primary.

Republican Race

Candidate It Score
Mike Causey* 15%
Zack Matheny* 15%
Mark Walker* 15%
Bruce VonCannon* 13%
Philip Berger 11%
Jeff Phillips* 10%
Kenn Kopf* 8%
Don Webb* 7%
Charlie Sutherland* 5%

This race will be extremely close, and many of the candidates lack sufficient data to calculate an accurate score.  As it stands…Mike Causey, Zack Matheny, and Mark Walker are in the lead.   This race could really go to anyone though.

Congressional District 7

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
Jonathan Barfield 61%
Walter  Martin, Jr. 39%

Jonathan barfield will likely win tomorrow.

Republican Race

Candidate It Score
David Rouzer 48%
Woody White 46%
Chris Andrade*
5%

David Rouzer will likely defeat Woody White.

Congressional District 9

Republican Race

Candidate It Score
Robert Pittenger 66%
Michael Steinberg 34%

Robert Pittenger is the likely nominee.

Congressional District 12

Democratic Race

Candidate It Score
Alma Adams* 34%
Marcus Brandon 23%
Malcolm Graham 21%
George Battle, III* 16%
Curtis Osborne 3%
Rajive Patel* 3%

Alma Adams is projected to win the nomination, however, there is insufficient data surrounding this candidate.  This makes his score less accurate.  Marcus Brandon will likely overcome Malcolm Graham in tomorrow’s primary.

Methodology

Some races were omitted completely.  This was due to insufficient data.

The It Score is a machine learning algorithm that gathers chatter surrounding a political candidate from social, and traditional media sources in order to provide a gauge of their digital influence.  It accounts for tone, how people are reacting to a politician, the buzz surrounding the candidate, and what people are saying about the politician.

Whatever candidate has the highest It Score will likely win in the election.

The machine learning algorithm was trained off of actual primary election results.  The original algorithm was predicting at 67% accuracy, but overtime it learned.  Currently it is predicting at 92% accuracy, and has a standard error of 5.

One limitation the algorithm faces is it’s inability to predict races where candidates lack a presence online.  PoliticIt omits these races because there is insufficient data.

PoliticIt’s hope is to refine this algorithm so that political candidates can use it to receive real-time feedback on campaign performance.

(Photo Credit: Flickr via Chris Short)

Josh Light

Josh Light

Josh Light was CEO and Co-Founder of PoliticIt.
Josh Light

@joshuajlight

I enjoy tweeting about startups, and economics.
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