Who’s going to win today’s primaries? The “It Score” weighs in….
Last month we applied our algorithm to local elections for the first time and ended up correctly forecasting both of Utah’s state conventions with 100% accuracy (utahpolicy.com) by calculating each candidate’s “It Score”. Because of our success we decided to apply our magic math skills and giant data sets to the calculation of “It Scores” for the candidates in North Carolina. Sorry for potentially spilling the beans early but hopefully it reduces some tension at the conventions. Our results…
District 13
Republican Winner
Democrat Winner
18
16
The margins in this district are sparse with exception between Bill Randall and Paul Coble who have It Scores of 16 and 18 respectively.
District 12
Republican Winner
37
Democrat Winner
35
28
Brosch is currently defeating both his would be contenders. The Democrats in this district will need to invest in improving their It Score prior to the general election.
District 11
Democrat Winner
Republican Winner
14
12
2
Assuming Meadows and Rogers win the nomination…Meadows is going to need to work on his digital influence to beat Rogers.
District 10
Republican Winner
Democrat Winner
19
Republicans seem to be winning this district.
District 9
Republican Winner
12
10
10
Democrat Winner
The It Score indicates that Pittenger likely has a significant lead over his Democrat contender Roberts…if he wins.
District 8
Republican Winner
19
Democrat Winner
15
12
This race is looking to be tight in the general election. The Republicans are currently beating the Democrats according to digital influence.
District 7
Republican Winner
Democrat Winner
29
This race will likely be tight in the general election.
District 6
Republican Winner
45
Democrat Winner
16
12
Foriest lags Coble significantly. Coble has a notably larger It Score relative to his Republican contenders.
District 5
Republican Winner
Democrat Winner
23
Bruce Peller has an It Score of 23. He will likely lose to Motsinger, but Motsinger will have difficulty catching up to Foxx who has a significantly higher digital influence.
District 4
Democrat Winner
41
Republican Winner
25
George Hutchins It Score is 22. This means that it may be a close call between Allen and Hutchins. Digital influence has Allen coming out on top. Whoever wins the primary is significantly lagging behind Price and will really need to set up their campaigning.
District 3
Republican Winner
Democrat Winner
Jones will likely win. Anderson is currently trailing for the general election.
District 2
Republican Winner
Democrat Winner
12
Ellmers wins with a healthy margin. Wilkens needs some work to get within striking distance before the generals.
District 1
Democrat Winner
Republican Winner
Gubernatorial
Republican Winner
17
Democrat Winner
12
12
Butterfield has a healthy margin over his competitors. DiLauro is really going to need to spend some significant work on his digital influence if we wants to beat Butterfield in the general election.
These are the It Score predictions. PoliticIt is the first big data company in election politics. The It Score is calculated using sophisticated machine learning and giant data sets. We have been calculating the It Score for over 10 months and our resultsindicate that there is a strong correlation between the It Score and traditional national polls.
If you’re a politician and you want to improve your score email us.
PoliticIt is a boot-strapped college start-up based in Utah. We are a hip group of economists, math people, and software junkies chasing the American Dream. We are a jolly non-partisan lot of tribes people interested in everything politics. We dream of a world consisting of political transparency. We love democracy.
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Happy voting,
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| Josh Light is a Co-Founder and the CEO of PoliticIt. Connect with Josh: Email: Josh@PoliticIt.com |
