Who’s going to win today’s primaries? The “It Score” weighs in….
Last month we applied the It Score algorithm to local elections for the first time and ended up correctly forecasting both of Utah’s state conventions with 100% accuracy (utahpolicy.com). Recently we applied the algorithm to primaries in Wisconsin, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. To date…the It Score has a prediction rate of 88%. Because of our success we decided to apply our magic math skills and giant data sets to the calculation of “It Scores” for the candidates in Oregon. Sorry for potentially spilling the beans early but hopefully it reduces some tension at the conventions. Our results…
Karen Bowerman comes out on top in the Republican party with a stronger digital influence relative to her competitor Fred Thompson. Bowerman also raised significantly larger amounts of money and seemed to have used a portion of it to re-enforce her digital influence, however, if Bowerman wants to win in the general election she will have to expend significant time and money to defeat Kurt Schrader who possesses a 10 point lead over Bowerman.
Peter DeFazio will likely win the Democrat nomination with an It Score of 49 over his competitor Matthew Robinson who only has an It Score of 11. DeFazio’s It Score is also higher than his Republican contender Arthur Robinson. Robinson will need to invest in improving his It Score if he wishes to win in the general election.
Delia Lopez will likely win the Republican nomination for this district, however, the data strongly suggests that Earl Blumenauer will win in the general election.
Joyce Segers will likely win the Democrat nomination in this district with an It Score of 31 over her in-party contender…John Sweeney. Despite this short term victory Segers will need to spend time improving her digital influence if she wants to defeat Greg Walden who is currently dominating this district with an It Score of 56.
Lisa Michaels will likely win the Republican nomination with an It Score of 28 over her in-party challenger Delinda Morgan. The current data suggests that the general election may be a close. Suzanne Bonamici leads with an It Score of 29, but close behind we have Michaels and the Libertarian contender Steven Reynolds. This is interesting because Bonamici has raised a significant amount of capital relative to her contenders…
These are the It Score predictions. PoliticIt is the first big data company in election politics. The It Score is calculated using sophisticated machine learning and giant data sets. We have been calculating the It Score for over 10 months and our results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the It Score and traditional national polls.
If you’re a politician and you want to improve your score email us.
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|Josh Light is a Co-Founder and CEO of PoliticIt.
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