Rick Santorum CNBC Debate Performance

What if there was a way to measure a debate’s success based upon data collected from social networks and the internet instead of relying upon the opinion of political commentators or journalists…well now there is.


The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate.  This blog is focused completely on Rick Santorum.  If you want to see who won the debate please click on this link PoliticIt which will take you to our main blog.  If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, JonHuntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry.


The PoliticIt team focused on two areas of measurement: Twitter, and Intrade.


Twitter:


The following graph shows Twitter activity about Rick Santorum for the last 7 days preceding the debate for the following Hashtags and @tags: #RickSantorum, #Santorum, @Rick Santorum, @Santorum.












Notice that the most frequently used tag for Rick Santorum is @ricksantorum.


This is the same graph as above expect we add an extra day:













Notice the sharp increase in Twitter activity on the day of the debate.  This indicates that people were talking about Rick Santorum on Twitter during the debate, but was this chatter good or bad?  Let’s take a quick look.













                                        

The above graph illustrates whether the Tweeter activity regarding Rick Santorum is positive or negative based upon the Hashtags and @ tags that are being tracked in this blog. If you look underneath the 9th of November you can see how Rick Santorum performed in last night’s debate.   Notice how all of his tags were positive.  This means that the majority of people on Twitter were saying good things about Santorum.  If we average out the values then Rick Santorum receives a Twitter score of 1.9.


Intrade:


Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election.  If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.


This is Rick Santorum’s Intrade data on November 8th the day before the debate:











Notice how his price is flat lined at 50 cents per share.  This indicates that Intrade traders estimated on November 8th that Rick Santorum had a 0.5% probability of winning the GOP nomination. 

Rick Santorum had no trading activity during the debate.  This means that Intrade traders felt the debate had a neutral impact on the probability of Rick Santorum winning the GOP nomination.


Extra Twitter Stats (approximate):


Top Tweeters for Santorum the last 7 days:

CatholicLisa: 112 tweets

TeaPartyCitizen: 65 tweets

Gabesmom: 53 tweets

SantorumTwibe: 47 tweets

voteglobal: 38 tweets


Top Positive Tweeters for Santorum the last 7 days:

CatholicLisa: 11 tweets

Gabesmom: 6 tweets

SantorumTwibe: 5 tweets

NickPappasNH: 4 tweets

hameditor: 4 tweets

Top Retweeters for Santorum in the last 7 days:

CatholicLisa: 38 retweets

Gabesmom: 33 retweets

SantorumTwibe: 30 retweets

mattbeynon: 28 retweets

the_newindividu: 17 retweets


To see how Rick Santorum did compared to other CNBC Michigan Republican Party Debate presidential candidates click here PoliticIt.



Josh Light

Josh Light

Josh Light was CEO and Co-Founder of PoliticIt.
Josh Light

@joshuajlight

I enjoy tweeting about startups, and economics.
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