Rick Santorum Thanksgiving Family Forum Debate Performance

Rick Santorum Debate Performance
At PoliticIt we are sick of media bias.  We are tired of media elitist telling us who to vote for or who won the debate.  So we decided to fight back.  Instead of basing debate performance on the opinion of a political commentator with an Ivy school education we let you determine who won the debate based upon what you say in Twitter and how people trade on Intrade.  We feel that this is a better representation of debate performance because it is based upon the opinions of millions of people instead of the opinion of one person.  If you value political transparency and dream of a better democratic process then you should share this article.

The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate. This blog is focused completely on Rick Santorum. If you want to see who won the debate please click on this link PoliticIt. Overall Rick Santorum took last place in this debate.  If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain.

Twitter:
The following graphs show whether Twitter activity about Rick Santorum during the debate was positive or negative for the following Hashtags and @tags: #Santorum, and @RickSantorum.

As you can see in the above graph people said the most positive things about Rick Santorum when using the @tag of @RickSantorum.  Notice how the hash tag #Santorum is red.  This means that the majority of Twitter users who used that tag said something negative about Rick Santorum.  Rick Santorum is the only candidate in this debate who received negative tone for one of his hashtags.  His Twitter Score for this debate was in last place. 

Intrade:
Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election. If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.  We feel this is a good place to measure debate performance because people are betting real money on the probability of a candidate winning the GOP nomination.  These people are putting their money where their mouth is.

This is Santorum’s Intrade data during the debate:

Notice Rick Santorum’s beginning price of 80 cents.  This price indicates that Intrade traders believed Rick Santorum to have a .8% chance of winning the GOP nomination prior to the debate.  Notice Rick Santorum’s end price of 80 cents.  This means that Intrade Traders felt the debate had no positive or negative effects on the probability of Santorum winning the nomination.  One additional thing to point out is the low volume of trading on Rick Santorum.  Only 2 trades occurred between 4:55 PM EST and 7:56 PM EST.  Not a good sign for Rick.

Rick Santorum’s biggest debate Twitter Fans.  If you like Rick Santorum then you should probably follow these guys in the next debate:




Positive Tweeters Number Retweeter Number
Pastsy_Wilcox 3 Gabesmom 7
blondygirl1 1 Patsy_Wilcox 6
citizenlink 1 SantorumTwibe 5
aletheiatruth 1 Dbondinkc 5
brittwhitmire 1 KamKap2010 4

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