What if there was a way to measure a debate’s success based upon data collected from social networks and the internet instead of relying upon the opinion of political commentators or journalists…well now there is.
The PoliticIt team diligently spent the evening collecting data regarding each candidate in an attempt to find out who the internet voted to be the winner of last night’s debate. This blog is focused completely on Ron Paul. If you want to see who won the debate please click on this link which will take you to our main blog. If you want to see another candidate just click on their name: Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, JonHuntsman, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum.
The PoliticIt team focused on two areas of measurement: Twitter, and Intrade.
The following graph shows Twitter activity about Ron Paul for the last 7 days preceding the debate for the following Hashtags and @ tags: #RonPaul, #Paul, @RonPaul, @Paul.
Notice that the most frequently used tag for Ron Paul is #ronpaul.
This is the same graph as above expect we add an extra day:
Notice the increase in Twitter activity on the day of the debate. This indicates that people were talking about Ron Paul during the debate on Twitter, but was this chatter good or bad? Let’s take a quick look.
The above graph illustrates whether the Tweeter activity regarding Ron Paul is positive or negative based upon the Hashtags and @ tags that are being tracked in this blog. If you look underneath the 9th of November you can see how Ron Paul performed in last night’s debate. Notice how all of his tags were positive. This means that the majority of people on Twitter were saying good things about Paul. If we average out the values then Ron Paul receives a Twitter score of 4.8.
Intrade is a place where people can buy shares in the probability of a candidate winning an election. If the price of a share goes up then the candidate is doing good, whereas, if the price of a share plummets then a candidate is doing bad.
This is Ron Paul’s Intrade data on November 8th the day before the debate:
Notice how his price increases to 6 dollars per share then drops down to 3.7 dollars per share. This indicates that Intrade traders estimated on November 8th that Ron Paul had a 3.7% probability of winning the GOP nomination.
This is Paul’s Intrade data during the debate:
At the beginning of the debate Ron Paul was trading at 5 dollars per share. At the end of the debate he was trading at 5.5 dollars per share. The steady price line indicates that Ron Paul had a solid debate with no major slip ups. Overall the debate increased his price by 50 cents or a 10% price increase. This indicates that traders on Intrade believe that the debate helped the probability of Ron Paul winning the GOP nomination.
Extra Twitter Stats (approximate):
Top Positive Tweeters during the Debate:
Xfilespoker: 7 tweets
freedomforthwin: 3 tweets
bencfirst: 2 tweets
nivbot: 2 tweets
DEMacRae: 2 tweets
Top Retweeters during the Debate:
GABullDog067: 22 retweets
HCCollins11: 6 retweets
Anunkasan: 6 retweets
PoppinsOTR: 5 retweets
TuffLikeHuff: 4 retweets
Top Tweeters for Paul the last 7 days:
RonPaulsVoice: 1700 tweets
freedomforthwin: 350 tweets
ronpaulrca2012: 335 tweets
skeeteronmy: 330 tweets
ClassicalLiber: 150 tweets
Top Positive Tweeters for Paul the last 7 days:
Xfilespoker: 58 tweets
RonPaulsVoice: 33 tweets
freedomforthwin: 15 tweets
usernamenuse: 13 tweets
nivbot: 7 tweets
Top Retweeters for Paul in the last 7 days:
skeeteronmy: 90 retweets
Jcoltrinari: 79 retweets
GABullDog067: 75 retweets
TxLibertyCaucus: 75 retweets
Heavy_metal_guy: 75 retweets
To see how Ron Paul did compared to other CNBC Michigan Republican Party Debate presidential candidates click here PoliticIt.