Texas Election Forecast

There is one question on the minds of every person interested in Texas politics — who will win in the general election. Below you’ll find the PoliticIt election forecast for Texas. PoliticIt has calculated the It Score for each candidate.

The It Score measures a politician’s digital influence. PoliticIt has found high correlation between a candidate’s strong digital influence and her success on election day. So far the It Score has correctly predicted election outcomes in more than 300 races with 90 percent accuracy. The candidate with the highest It Score in each race is the one most likely to win according to our data. To learn more about the It Score, click here


First Name Last Name Race It Score
Louie Gohmert Congressional district 1 73
Shirley McKellar Congressional district 1 11
Clark Patterson Congressional district 1 15
Ted Poe Congressional district 2 73
Jim Dougherty Congressional district 2 5
Mark Roberts Congressional district 2 17
Ken Duncan Congressional district 2 5
Sam Johnson Congressional district 3 100
Ralph Hall Congressional district 4 65
Valinda Hathcox Congressional district 4 12
Thomas Griffing Congressional district 4 12
Fred Rostek Congressional district 4 10
Jeb Hensarling Congressional district 5 64
Linda Mrosko Congressional district 5 21
Ken Ashby Congressional district 5 15
Joe Barton Congressional district 6 59
Kenneth Sanders Congressional district 6 13
Brandon Parmer Congressional district 6 14
Hugh Chauvin Congressional district 6 14
John Culberson Congressional district 7 71
James Cargas Congressional district 7 19
Lance Findley Congressional district 7 5
Drew Parks Congressional district 7 5
Kevin Brady Congressional district 8 74
Neil Burns Congressional district 8 23
Roy Hall Congressional district 8 3
Al Green Congressional district 9 64
Steve Mueller Congressional district 9 9
Vanessa Foster Congressional district 9 16
John Wieder Congressional district 9 11
Michael Mccaul Congressional district 10 72
Tawana Cadien Congressional district 10 24
Richard Priest Congressional district 10 5
Mike Conaway Congressional district 11 80
Jim Riley Congressional district 11 14
Scott Ballard Congressional district 11 6
Kay Granger Congressional district 12 68
Dave Robinson Congressional district 12 15
Matt Solodow Congressional district 12 17
Mac Thornberry Congressional district 13 76
Keith Houston Congressional district 13 5
John Robert Deek Congressional district 13 19
Randy Weber Congressional district 14 47
Nicholas Lampson Congressional district 14 45
Rhett Smith Congressional district 14 -2
Zach Grady Congressional district 14 11
Dale Brueggermann Congressional district 15 20
Ruben Hinojosa Congressional district 15 74
Ronald Finch Congressional district 15 5
Barbara Carrasco Congressional district 16 40
Beto O’Rourke Congressional district 16 55
Junart Sodoy Congressional district 16 5
Bill Flores Congressional district 17 94
Ben Easton Congressional district 17 6
Sheila Lee Congressional district 18 58
Sean Seibert Congressional district 18 14
Christopher Barber Congressional district 18 14
Steve Warshell Congressional district 18 14
Randy Neugebauer Congressional district 19 94
Richard Peterson Congressional district 19 6
Joaquin Castro Congressional district 20 57
David Rosa Congressional district 20 15
Antonio Diaz Congressional district 20 14
A.E. Potts Congressional district 20 14
Lamar Smith Congressional district 21 67
Candace Duval Congressional district 21 8
Bill Stout Congressional district 21 5
John Henry Liberty Congressional district 21 20
Pete Olson Congressional district 22 76
Kesha Rogers Congressional district 22 14
Don Cook Congressional district 22 5
Steven Susman Congressional district 22 5
Francisco Canseco Congressional district 23 50
Pete Gallego Congressional district 23 40
Ed Scharf Congressional district 23 5
Jeffrey Blunt Congressional district 23 5
Kenny Marchant Congressional district 24 70
Tim Rusk Congressional district 24 14
John Stathas Congressional district 24 16
John Roger Williams Congressional district 25 73
Elaine Henderson Congressional district 25 5
Roger Quannah Settler Congressional district 25 4
Betsy Dewey Congressional district 25 18
Michael Burgess Congressional district 26 67
David Sanchez Congressional district 26 24
Michael Cary Congressional district 26 5
Mark Boler Congressional district 26 4
Blake Farenthold Congressional district 27 65
Rosa Harrison Congressional district 27 26
Corrie Byrd Congressional district 27 4
William Baldwin Congressional district 27 5
Henry Cuellar Congressional district 28 66
William Hayward Congressional district 28 16
Patrick Hisel Congressional district 28 17
Gene Green Congressional district 29 84
Maria Selva Congressional district 29 5
James Stanczak Congressional district 29 5
Mike Fitzsimmons Congressional district 29 5
Eddie Johnson Congressional district 30 78
Travis Washington Congressional district 30 15
Edwin Rankin Congressional district 30 7
John Carter Congressional district 31 67
Stephen Wyman Congressional district 31 17
Ethan Garofolo Congressional district 31 16
Pete Sessions Congressional district 32 73
Katherine McGovern Congressional district 32 14
Seth Hollist Congressional district 32 13
Chuck Bradley Congressional district 33 18
Marc Veasey Congressional district 33 70
Ed Lindsay Congressional district 33 12
Jessica Bradshaw Congressional district 34 36
Filemon Vela Congressional district 34 48
Steven Shanklin Congressional district 34 17
Susan Narvaiz Congressional district 35 10
Meghan Owen Congressional district 35 2
Ross Lynn Leone Congressional district 35 5
Lloyd Doggett Congressional district 35 66
Simon Alvarado Congressional district 35 16
Max Martin Congressional district 36 20
Michael Cole Congressional district 36 12
Steve Stockman Congressional district 36 68
Ted Cruz U.S. Senate 51
Paul Sadler U.S. Senate 21
David Collins U.S. Senate 8
John Myers U.S. Senate 16
Jacquie Henderson U.S. Senate 4

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