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Texas Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Texas Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

 

Texas Primary Election Results Versus Forecast 2014

PoliticIt provided a forecast for the Texas primary the day before the election.  This article serves as a postmortem examining actual election results versus the forecast provided by the It Score.

The It Score is a measure of a digital influence that correlates with election results (GigaOM).  It was used in the 2012 election to correctly predict the outcomes of every major federal race with 92% accuracy.  If a candidate has a higher It Score relative to their opponent then they will likely.

The It Score predicted two races incorrectly.  One of the races was congressional district 4.  In this district incumbent Ralph Hall was competing for re-nomination.  We predicted a higher score for one of his challengers (John Ratcliffe), and stated that Ratcliffe would either win or this race would be a run-off.

The It Score predicted the outcomes of the Texas primary with 91% accuracy.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican gubernatorial candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Greg Abbott 78 91.5%
Lisa Fritsch 10 4.4%
Miriam Martinez 8 2.7%
Larry Kilgore 4 1.4%

Democratic gubernatorial candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Wendy Davis 95 79.1%
Ray Madrigal 5 20.9%

The It Score was dead on when predicting the outcomes of the republican and democratic gubernatorial races in Texas.

Surprisingly though…Wendy Davis has a much higher It Score relative to Greg Abbott when a match-up is done.  This indicates that Wendy Davis may be an undervalued candidate.

For additional analysis please refer to the election forecast.

Senate Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic senate candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
David Alameel 40 47.1%
Kesha Rogers 7 21.7%
Maxey Scherr 37 17.7%
Harry Kim 4 8.9%
Mike Fjetland 12 4.6%

The It Score correctly predicted David Alameel to be the winner in the democratic camp, but it undervalued Kesha Rogers.  Rogers lacked a very strong presence on most of the major social networks relative to her competitors.

Rogers seemed to have a strong offline presence.  If Rogers had invested more in her online presence she would have likely performed better at the polls.

Republican senate candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
John Cornyn 42 59.4%
Steve Stockman 31 19.1%
Dwayne Stovall 5 10.7%
Linda Vega 6 3.8%
Ken Cope 4 2.6%
Chris Mapp 5 1.8%
Reid Reasor 5 1.6%
Curt Cleaver 2 0.9%

The It Score slightly undervalued Dwayne Stovall relative to his competitors, but it correctly predicted the outcome of this race.

Congressional District 3 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 3 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Sam Johnson 74 80.5%
Harry Pierce 7 7.8%
Cami Dean 8 6.3%
Josh Loveless 10 5.4%

The It Score correctly predicted Sam Johnson to be the winner of this race.

Congressional District 4 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 4 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Ralph Hall 19 45.4%
John Ratcliffe 28 28.8%
Lou Gigliotti 17 16.1%
John Stacy 8 4.3%
Brent Lawson 11 3.5%
Toney Arterburn 19 1.9%

This is one of the races the It Score incorrectly predicted the outcome winner, but we did state that this race would likely go into a run-off.

Ralph Hall has been in office for a long time, and is over the age of 90.  It is likely that he has a built quite a following over the years that contributed to his high vote percentage.

The It Score did nicely predicted John Ratcliffe overcoming Lou Gigliotti to face Ralph Hall in a run-off.

Congressional District 6 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 6 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Joe Barton 83 72.7%
Frank Kuchar 17 27.3%

The It Score correctly predicted Joe Barton’s victory over Frank Kuchar.

Congressional District 7 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic congressional district 7 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
James Cargas 77 62.2%
Lisa Squiers 23 37.8%

The It Score correctly predicted James Cargas as the democratic winner in congressional district 7.

Congressional District 8 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 8 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Kevin Brady 74 68%
Craig McMichael 26 32%

The It Score predicted Kevin Brady’s victory over Craig McMichael.

Congressional District 11 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 11 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Mike Conaway 88 73.7%
Wade Brown 12 26.3%

The It Score predicted that Mike Conaway would win in this race.

Congressional District 13 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 13 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Mac Thornberry 60 67.9%
Elaine Hays 19 18.7%
Pam Barlow 12 13.3%

The It Score predicted this race nicely.

Congressional District 14 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic congressional district 14 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Don Brown 42 68.2%
Buck Willis 28 25.8%
Gagan Panjhazari 30 5.9%

The It Score predicted Don Brown to be the victor in this race.  The over-valued It Score of Gagan Panjhazari relative to Buck Willis is due to a lack of data around these two candidates (stated in the election forecast).

Congressional District 15 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 15 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Eddie Zamora 73 54.9%
Doug Carlile 27 45.1%

The It Score correctly predicted Eddie Zamora to be the winner, but Zamora will need to work on his digital presence if he wants to stand a chance against Ruben Hinojosa.

Congressional District 19 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 19 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Randy Neugebauer 65 64%
Donald May 14 24%
Chris Winn 22 12%

The It Score correctly predicted Randy Neugebauer to be the winner.

Congressional District 21 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 21 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Lamar Smith 45 60.4%
Matt McCall 21 33.9%
Michael Smith 35 5.7%

The It Score correctly predicted Lamar Smith’s victory.

Congressional District 22 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic congressional district 22 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Frank Briscoe 53.2%
Mark Gibson 46.8%

Due to insufficient data…we didn’t provide a forecast for this race.

Congressional District 23 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 23 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Quico Canseco 19 40.4%
Will Hurd 48 30.9%
Robert Lowry 33 18.7%

The It Score incorrectly predicted this race.

Congressional District 25 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic congressional district 25 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Marco Montoya 56 75%
Stuart Gourd 44 25%

The It Score correctly predicted Marco Montoya’s victory.

Congressional District 26 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 26 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Michael Burgess 74 82.6%
Joel Krause 19 15.7%
Divenchy Watrous 7 1.7%

The It Score correctly predicted Michael Burgess’s victory.

Congressional District 30 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic congressional district 30 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Eddie Bernice Johnson 81 69.9%
Barbara Mallory Caraway 19 30.1%

The It Score predicted Eddie Bernice Johnson to be the winner of district 30.

Congressional District 32 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 32 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Pete Sessions 71 63.6%
Katrina Pierson 29 36.4%

The It Score correctly predicted Pete Sessions to win over Katrina Pierson.

Congressional District 33 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Democratic congressional district 33 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Marc Veasey 79 73.5%
Tom Sanchez 21 26.5%

The It Score correctly predicted Marc Veasey’s victory.

Congressional District 36 Primary Election Results Versus Forecast

Republican congressional district 36 candidates:

Candidate It Score Election Result
Brian Babin 14 33.4%
Ben Streusand 16 23.3%
John Manlove 9 6.9%
Doug Centilli 12 6.8%
Phil Fitzgerald 4 6.6%
Robin Riley 4 5.1%
Dave Norman 9 4.5%
Chuck Meyer 14 3.1%
John Amdur 4 2.9%
Kim Morrell 6 2.8%
Jim Engstrand 2 2.5%
Pat Kasprzak 8 2.2%

The It Score correctly predicted a run-off race between Brian Babin, and Ben Streusand.

Methodology

The It Score is a machine learning algorithm that gathers chatter surrounding a political candidate from social, and traditional media sources in order to provide a gauge of their digital influence.  It accounts for tone, how people are reacting to a politician, the buzz surrounding the candidate, and what people are saying about the politician.

Whatever candidate has the highest It Score will likely win in the election.  Candidates placing behind the front-runner can sometimes have incorrect It Scores.  Usually this is because the candidates didn’t spend much time investing in their online presence, and the algorithm did not have enough data to calculate correctly.

The machine learning algorithm was trained off of actual primary election results.  The original algorithm was predicting at 67% accuracy, but overtime it learned.  It predicted this race with 91% accuracy.

PoliticIt’s hope is to refine this algorithm so that political candidates can use it to receive real-time feedback on campaign performance.

(Photo Credit: Flickr via Stuart Seeger)

Josh Light

Josh Light

Josh Light was CEO and Co-Founder of PoliticIt.
Josh Light

@joshuajlight

I enjoy tweeting about startups, and economics.
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