West Virginia Primary Forecast

Who’s going to win today’s primaries?  The “It Score” weighs in….


Last month we applied our algorithm to local elections for the first time and ended up correctly forecasting both of Utah’s state conventions with 100% accuracy (utahpolicy.com) by calculating each candidate’s “It Score”.  Because of our success we decided to apply our magic math skills and giant data sets to the calculation of “It Scores” for the candidates in West Virginia.  Sorry for potentially spilling the beans early but hopefully it reduces some tension at the conventions.  Our results…


District 3


Democrat Winner


Republican Winner

Nick Rahall is the only Democrat in this district which means he wins the Democrat nomination by default.  Lee Bias’s score of 30 suggests that he will likely win the Republican nomination.  It must be noted that this district suffers severely from a lack of data.   This lack of data will impact the significance of the It Score as a means of measurement.  If this district were to be compared to another district each of these individuals would suffer extremely low It Scores.  These poor It Scores can be viewed in a positive respect for each of these candidates because it means that anyone of them could excel and dominate this space if they employ the proper tools and tactics.


District 2


Democrat Winner



                                                       Republican Winner

Dugald Brown’s It Score of 36 indicates that he will likely win the Democrat nomination.  Shelley Capito’s It Score of 23 suggests that she will retain her Republican nomination.  Brown’s significantly higher It Score implies that he may defeat his Republican incumbent rival unless Capito works to improve her It Score before the general election.  It should be noted though that both candidates have unimpressive digital foot prints relative to other candidates in the country.  Because of their lack of data either candidate could obtain very large improvements in their scores with very little expenditure or cost.  

District 1


Republican Winner



                                                       Democrat Winner


The It Scores for this district suggest that David McKinley leads in district 1 over his Democrat rival Sue Thorn.  The data also denotes that despite being an incumbent, voters are still becoming acquainted with McKinley.  This is a positive sign for the McKinley campaign because these inquiries will likely convert to votes furthering the margin between himself and his competitor.    



Gubernatorial


Democrat Winner

Republican Winner

Earl Tomblin’s It Score of 36 indicates that he will probably remain the Democrat nominee for the gubernatorial office.  Bill Maloney’s It Score of 34 suggests that he will win the Republican nomination and go against Tomblin in the general election.  Their close scores point towards a grueling campaign in the ensuing months before the general election. 

Senate


Democrat Winner

Republican Winner

Joe Manchin’s It Score of 45 over Sheirl Fletcher’s It Score of 13 suggests strongly that he will likely win the Democrat nomination and face John Raese in the general election.  

These are the It Score predictions.  PoliticIt is the first big data company in campaign politics.  The It Score is calculated using sophisticated machine learning and giant data sets.  We have been calculating the It Score for over 10 months and our resultsindicate that there is a strong correlation between the It Score and traditional national polls. 

If you’re a politician and you want to improve your score email us.

PoliticIt is a boot-strapped college start-up based in Utah. We are a hip group of economists, math people, and software junkies chasing the American Dream.  We are a jolly non-partisan lot of tribes people interested in everything politics.  We dream of a world consisting of political transparency.  We love democracy.  

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Happy voting,


Josh Light is a Co-Founder and the CEO of PoliticIt.
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