Who Won the CNN University of North Florida Republican Debate?

Let’s black out the mainstream media and put opinion based analysis aside.  Who won the debate tonight?  Below is a graph of Intrade price fluctuations during the debate.  An increase in the price indicates that the probability of the candidate winning the presidency improved during the debate whereas a decrease in the price indicates the opposite.

This graph clearly shows that Mitt Romney won the debate according to Intrade users.  Romney garnered strong applause despite facing several attacks from Newt Gingrich.  He also stuck with much of the same strategy that he undertook in the previous Florida debate by dishing out more dirt on Newt Gingrich.  Last debate Romney saw a 3.3 increase in his Intrade price making it the largest increase in all the debates.  Tonight he topped this increase with a 4 dollar increase.  This means that tonight’s debate helped improve Romney’s chance of winning the presidency by 4% (his strongest increase yet).

Rick Santorum appears to have come in second in tonight’s debate.  Santorum had strong emotional responses starting off with a shout-out to his 93-year-old mother who was in the audience.  His Intrade price increased by .3.

Ron Paul and Barack Obama both saw a decrease in .1 in their Intrade price.  This is only a small decrease.  Essentially it means that this debate hurt the probability of these candidates of winning the presidency by 0.1%.

Newt Gingrich saw the largest decrease in his Intrade price suffering an overall loss of 1.8 meaning that this debate hurt his probability of winning the presidency by 1.8%. 

It should be noted that despite Gingrich’s loss the most recent It Scores have him above Mitt Romney.  They also have Ron Paul above Rick Santorum.  These It Scores represent the opinions of voters on January 24th.


A word cloud of the debate reveals the following topics as being the most popular things discussed during the debate.

For more information on the social media surrounding 2012 candidates please visit us at http://www.politicit.com/.

Intrade is a website where people can bet on political outcomes.  As more people bet toward the probability of some event occurring, the price of that event increases.   You can watch the debate here.  Who do you think won the debate?

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  1. At the end, don’t results trump rhetoric and achievements demolish mere empty talk?

    All big thinkers and shakers are grandiose in their ideas, and many don’t mind telling you about their grandiose ideas. Ronald Reagan had a grandiose idea of calling the Soviet Union an “Evil Empire.” Now the Establishment Republicans and the Democrats didn’t like this idea, but Reagan didn’t want to live with this threat, instead, he wanted to ELIMINATE IT! And so he set out to convince as many people as possible of this grandiose idea, and was able to get elected and build up our military — even through the Democrats’ nasty campaign against this idea with their name calling and frightening people into thinking Reagan was a “war monger.” But Reagan prevailed because he could communicate to the Public his ideas well enough that they accepted them.

    Newt Gingrich had grandiose ideas back before the 1994 elections. He wanted to win the House of Representatives back from the Democrats, who had held it since 1952, forty years. He convinced a great deal of Republicans and voters that his ideas were better than the Democrat’s ideas. And what happened? A spectacular, historic victory! His strategy with the content of his 1994 Contract with America propelled the Republicans to a 54-seat gain in 1994 to win control of the House of Representatives, the Republicans only capturing it two out of the previous 62 years. Even the Reagan Revolution failed to achieve that!

    Then Newt led the House Republicans in 1996 to their first re-election as a majority since 1928 — an astounding almost 70 years!

    And once in power, Newt Gingrich actually delivered on his promises, and maintained a solid conservative record, working closely with Conservative Activist Groups on every one of these issues. He carried out the Contract with America in full, holding a vote on every item as promised, with most of the items passing. Newt maintained a RECORD of unswerving loyalty to pro-life, pro-gun and Second Amendment, and anti-tax issues.

    Under Newt’s leadership, the total federal spending relative to GDP declined from 1995 to 2000 by a whopping 12.5%. This equals about one-eighth of the size of the economy in just five short years!

    As a result, those nasty $200 billion annual federal deficits that had prevailed for over 15 years were instead transformed into record-breaking surpluses by 1998. They peaked at $236 billion in 2000.

    Mr. Gingrich also led enactment of a capital gains tax rate cut of almost 30% in 1997. It went from 28% down to 20%, the largest capital gains cut in U.S. history! And BECAUSE of that cut, capital gains revenues went up a whopping $84 billion higher for 1997 to 2000 than projected before Newt’s rate cut.

    RINO Romney ran to the Left of Ted Kennedy, governed like Ted Kennedy, voted like Ted Kennedy and then ran for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination as a Conservative WITHOUT a record of conservatism! Go Newt! — 777denny