Let’s black out the mainstream media and put opinion based analysis aside. Who won the debate tonight? Below is a graph of Intrade price fluctuations during the debate. An increase in the price indicates that the probability of the candidate winning the presidency improved during the debate whereas a decrease in the price indicates the opposite.
This graph clearly shows that Mitt Romney won the debate according to Intrade users. Romney garnered strong applause despite facing several attacks from Newt Gingrich. He also stuck with much of the same strategy that he undertook in the previous Florida debate by dishing out more dirt on Newt Gingrich. Last debate Romney saw a 3.3 increase in his Intrade price making it the largest increase in all the debates. Tonight he topped this increase with a 4 dollar increase. This means that tonight’s debate helped improve Romney’s chance of winning the presidency by 4% (his strongest increase yet).
Rick Santorum appears to have come in second in tonight’s debate. Santorum had strong emotional responses starting off with a shout-out to his 93-year-old mother who was in the audience. His Intrade price increased by .3.
Ron Paul and Barack Obama both saw a decrease in .1 in their Intrade price. This is only a small decrease. Essentially it means that this debate hurt the probability of these candidates of winning the presidency by 0.1%.
Newt Gingrich saw the largest decrease in his Intrade price suffering an overall loss of 1.8 meaning that this debate hurt his probability of winning the presidency by 1.8%.
It should be noted that despite Gingrich’s loss the most recent It Scores have him above Mitt Romney. They also have Ron Paul above Rick Santorum. These It Scores represent the opinions of voters on January 24th.
A word cloud of the debate reveals the following topics as being the most popular things discussed during the debate.
For more information on the social media surrounding 2012 candidates please visit us at http://www.politicit.com/.
Intrade is a website where people can bet on political outcomes. As more people bet toward the probability of some event occurring, the price of that event increases. You can watch the debate here. Who do you think won the debate?