Who Won the Fox News Debate

Who Won the Huckabee GOP Presidential Forum?
12/3/2011

Data Breakdown

Beg Price End Price Total Change Percent Change Total Volume
Romney 46 47.6 1.6 3% 33
Paul 4.9 5.3 0.4 8% 180
Santorum 1 1.3 0.3 30% 60
Bachmann 2 2.1 0.1 5% 109
Gingrich 35 35 0 0% 144
Perry 2.7 2.5 -0.2 -8% 184
                Rick Santorum               Michele Bachmann
# Santorum 6.1 # Bachmann 4.3
@ RickSantorum 5.1 @ MicheleBachmann 4.9
@ TeamBachmann 5.5

                     Ron Paul                    Newt Gingrich
# Paul 2.6 # Newt 2.8
# RonPaul 4.1 # NewtGingrich 1.7
@ Paul 3.3 @ NewtGingrich 2.7
@ RepRonPaul 5.2
@ RonPaul 3.7
                  Newt Gingrich                          Rick Perry
# Newt 2.8 # Perry 5
# NewtGingrich 1.7 # RickPerry 5.2
@ NewtGingrich 2.7 @ GovernorPerry 6.2
@ RickPerry 4

                  Mitt Romney
# MittRomney 3.8
# Romney 5
@ MittRomney 5.1
Methodology
Debate winners are selected by combining the Twitter and Intrade Score.  1st place receives 6 points, 2nd place receives 5 points, 3rd place receives 4 points, 4th place receives 3 points, 5th place receives 2 points, and 6th place receives 1 point.

Below is a breakdown of the points.



Rick Santorum 10
Mitt Romney 9
Ron Paul 7
Michele Bachmann 7
Rick Perry 6
Newt Gingrich 3

Twitter Score:

The Twitter Score is calculated by subtracting the number of negative tweets from the number of positive tweets about a politician. This determines if the overall chatter on Twitter was negative or positive.  Some candidates have more hashtags or @tags relative to others due to volume issues.  For instance, if there is isn’t enough people using a hashtag our software will not be able to produce data regarding it. 

Intrade:

Intrade is a website where people can bet real money towards the probability of a politician achieving some event. The event that we tracked was the probability of an individual GOP candidate winning the GOP nomination. If a representative’s price declines during the debate then that means individuals who are betting on Intrade believe that the politician is less likely to win the GOP nomination.

Share this article

1 comment