Intrade is a website where people can bet on political outcomes. As more people bet towards the probability of some event occuring the price of that event increases. Below is a graph illustrating changes in the Intrade price regarding the probability of a candidate being elected President in 2012.
According to the price changes, Mitt Romney was the clear winner of the debate. A positive increase of .7 indicates that during the debate Mitt Romney’s probability of winning the presidency increased by .7%. The debate also seemed to be a positive win for the Republican party because Barack Obama suffered a .2% decrease in the probability of being re-elected President. Newt Gingrich suffered the most in this debate with a .6% decrease in the probability of winning the presidency. Rick Santorum was also damaged by the debate. Romney likely won the debate because he was able to avoid being attacked while other candidates turn against each other. Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman had zero trading during the debate indicating that their performance was either neutral or that they were considered irrelevant during the debate. There were trading for Ron Paul shares during the debate, but his beginning price matched his ending price indicating that the debate had a neutral effect on the probability of him winning the presidency. Below are videos of the January 7th New Hampshire debate. Do you think that Mitt Romney won? Who do you think was the biggest loser? Comment below.
For real-time national and local election news, social media information, and internet data visit us at www.PoliticIt.com.