Intrade is a website where people can bet on political outcomes. As more people bet toward the probability of some event occurring, the price of that event increases. Below is a graph illustrating changes in the Intrade price regarding the probability of a candidate being elected President in 2012.
According to the price changes Ron Paul was the winner of the debate. A positive increase of .4 indicates that during the debate Ron Paul’s probability of winning the presidency increased by .4%. Jon Huntsman was close behind Ron Paul with a positive increase of .3. Newt Gingrich also had a good debate with a positive increase of .1. The debate also seemed to be a positive win for the Republican party because Barack Obama suffered a .5% decrease in the probability of being re-elected President. Note that this decrease was higher than the previous debate that occured just the night before. Rick Santorum was again damaged by the debate with a decrease of .4. Rick Perry again had no price changes during the debate because no one traded on his shares. Mitt Romney was the biggest loser of this debate with a price decrease of 1.2 indicating that the debate hurt his probability of winning the presidency by 1.2%. Mitt Romney likely suffered this loss due to the intense scrutiny that he faced from all of his contenders on the stage. Below are videos of the January 8th New Hampshire debate. Do you think that Ron Paul won? Who do you think was the biggest loser? Comment below.
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