Wisconsin Primary Forecast

Who’s going to win today’s primaries?  The “It Score” weighs in….


Last month we applied our algorithm to local elections for the first time and ended up correctly forecasting both of Utah’s state conventions with 100% accuracy (utahpolicy.com) by calculating each candidate’s “It Score”.  Because of our success we decided to apply our magic math skills and giant data sets to the calculation of “It Scores” for the candidates in Wisconsin.  Sorry for potentially spilling the beans early but hopefully it reduces some tension at the conventions.  Our results…
District 8


Republican Winner


Democrat Winner

Ribble has a significantly higher It Score relative to Wall.  Wall will need to invest significant time to catch up to Ribble.


District 7


Democrat Winner


Republican Winner

The data indicates that if the general election was held today the current incumbent, Sean Duffy, would likely lose his seat to Democrat contender Pat Kreitlow.


District 6


Republican Winner


Democrat Winner

The It Score of 71 indicates that Petri has an extremely strong digital presence relative to his contenders.  This indicates that he will likely win the Republican nomination and the general election unless Kallas is able to drastically increase his It Score in the preceding months.
District 5


Republican Winner

                                                    
                                                      Democrat Winner

If the general election was held today the Republicans would likely win district 5.
District 4


Democrat Winner



                                                    Republican Winner

If the general election was held today the Democrats would likely win district 4.


District 3

Democrat Winner

               
                                                    Republican Winner



The It Scores for these candidates are relatively close indicating that either candidate has the potential of taking the lead before the general election.  

District 2


Democrat Winner



                                                    Republican Winner

Roys It Score of 25 indicates that she is slightly beating her in party rival Pocan who has an It Score of 23.  Either candidate has the potential of winning this race today, but the It Score is favoring Roys.  Lee, the Republican candidate, has an It Score of 22 indicating that he has a competitive It Score relative to his Democrat foes….though Roys seems to be a better candidate to go against Lee based upon this variable.  It is likely that this will be an exciting district in the general election.

District 1


Republican Winner


Democrat Winner

Ryan has a fairly large It Score relative to his competitor Zerban, but there is still plenty of time for either party to increase or decrease before the general election.


Senate Race

Democrat Winner

                                                         Potential Republican Winner

                                              Potential Republican Winner

Baldwin’s It Score of 17 indicates that she will likely secure the Democrat nomination.  On the Republican side it is a tight race between Thompson and Hovde.  Hovde actually has a slightly higher It Score relative to Thompson so the It Score is predicting him to win, however, the scores are so close that it could go either way. 


Gubernatorial

Republican Winner


Democrat Winner

These are the It Score predictions.  PoliticIt is the first big data company in election politics.  The It Score is calculated using sophisticated machine learning and giant data sets.  We have been calculating the It Score for over 10 months and our resultsindicate that there is a strong correlation between the It Score and traditional national polls. 

If you’re a politician and you want to improve your score email us.

PoliticIt is a boot-strapped college start-up based in Utah. We are a hip group of economists, math people, and software junkies chasing the American Dream.  We are a jolly non-partisan lot of tribes people interested in everything politics.  We dream of a world consisting of political transparency.  We love democracy.  

Leave us comments below.  We are a humble lot in need of feedback and are always interested in improvement.  Please check out our website too.  We need you’re highly valued opinion.  It’s free too. 

Happy voting,


Josh Light is a Co-Founder and the CEO of PoliticIt.
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Josh@PoliticIt.com

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